MBS RECAP: The Sun Also Goes Behind a Cloud

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Things have been bright and sunny for the bond market without any troubling exceptions since mid-April. During that time we’ve only seen 10yr yields rise more than 6bps (close-to-close) 3 times. Today was one of them. We could say something like “the sun also sets,” but that would be ignoring the fact that yields hit their lowest closing levels since Nov 2016 yesterday. And as it happens, the other 2 days with 6bps+ losses also followed strong trading days near long-term low yields. So the worst thing we can say for now is that the sun went behind a cloud. If things remain dark tomorrow, we’ll ratchet up the level of concern accordingly. As far as underlying motivations for the weakness, there’s no doubt that US/China trade headlines moved the needle in the overnight session…(read more)

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